Studies Predict Murray Will Outgrow Classroom Space

by Joan R. Simon

(January 26, 2006) A group of some 75 parents and school officials were on hand for Dr. Lloyd Bishop’s presentation of a preliminary demographic report to the Mamaroneck School board on Tuesday, January 24th, but with one exception, the news was good.( See also: How Many Babies? Demographic Study On Tap for Schools.) After a careful review of all the factors affecting school population growth and current building capacity, Dr. Bishop reported that only Murray Avenue School will need additional classrooms over the next ten years.

Starting next year, Murray is expected outgrow its current classroom configuration, with at least one classroom needed. Dr. Fried reassured the audience, saying “we are confident that we can accommodate” the extra number of students at Murray.

Dr. Bishop's figures indicate enrollment (red bars) is outstripping classroom capacity (blue) at Murray Avenue School.

“Murray is the only elementary school that has consistently grown,” Dr. Bishop said. It now has 690 students and future projections show an expected student population of 706 in September 2006, 752 in 2010, with a slight decline to 744 by 2015. Predictions after 5 years, Dr. Bishop cautioned, are iffy compared with the first five years “where the data we have to work with are here.”

House Sales Up in Murray Area

One indicator of population growth is house sales, which often occur when families with grown children move away and new families move in with school age children. In the past two years, Murray has led the other elementary districts with 152 homes sold.

Overall, however, the news was good. The total school population of 4861 is expected to increase to 4917 next year, 5137 in 2010 and 5302 by 2015. “This is the kind of picture a demographer likes to see when working with a school district,” Dr. Bishop said, citing the fairly smooth and gradual upward trend. Dr. Fried agreed saying, “the good news in 5 of the 6 schools is that we have the capacity to educate our children” over the next 10 years.

Both the Hommocks and the high school have plenty of capacity to accommodate future growth as far out as projected, Dr. Bishop said. The high school, with 1451 this year, should remain the same size next year, and increase to 1519 in 2010 and to 1625 by 2015.

Private School Migration In & Out of District

Dr. Bishop described the “in- and out-migration” of private and parochial school students. An average of 10% of Mamaroneck’s school population (compared with a Westchester County average of 15 – 18%) attends private schools. In September 2003 there were 495 students at private or parochial schools; in 2004 the number was 560; and this year it went back to 484, an exchange of 76 students. Dr. Bishop described this as a “movement back and forth. It’s not really new growth of students in the school,” he said, adding that this pattern has remained fairly consistent since 1999.

Dr. Bishop explained that new housing construction in the school district was primarily condominiums, coops, townhouse and apartments – the kind that “typically does not produce a lot of children.” However, he noted there could be a secondary effect, with home owners downsizing to these units and opening up single family houses for young families. To the extent that movement occurs within the school district, it will affect the school population over time, he said. “If some of the new construction has some impact,” he recommended that the school board look at the higher forecasts that will be included in the final report.

Joan Rosen, Director of Public Information, explained that “this is not the final report. We asked Dr. Bishop for an early review so that we would know how to plan for September.” The final report will be complete in a month and will contain high and low estimates, as well as the averages that were included in the preliminary presentation.

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